Greece
vs
Netherlands
2 – 2 Full time
| 18′ | Christos TzolisGeorgios Masouras | ||
| 23′ | Fotis Ioannidis | ||
| 45′ | Georgios Masouras | ||
| 45′ | Ruben van BommelNoa Lang | ||
| 45′ | Guus TilTijjani Reijnders | ||
| 45′ | Quinten TimberRyan Gravenberch | ||
| 59′ | Virgil van Dijk | ||
| 67′ | Konstantinos Tzolakis | ||
| 70′ | Mexx MeerdinkJoshua Zirkzee | ||
| 71′ | Fotis IoannidisAndrews Tetteh | ||
| 71′ | Vangelis PavlidisChristos Zafeiris | ||
| 76′ | Manolis Saliakas | ||
| 78′ | Jurriën TimberGjivai Zechiel | ||
| 83′ | Athanasios AndroutsosAnastasios Douvikas | ||
| 83′ | Konstantinos KaretsasGiannis Michailidis | ||
| 89′ | Tijjani Reijnders |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 29 | Possession % | 71 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 180 | Accurate passes | 549 |
Greece vs Netherlands overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Greece vs Netherlands
| Probability | Greece | Draw | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.6% | 16.9% | 71.5% |
| Market | 28.8% | 26.0% | 45.2% |
| Final | 24.5% | 23.7% | 51.8% |
| Edge | -17.2% | -9.1% | +26.2% |
Why Netherlands
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Netherlands below the model: +26.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Greece and Netherlands expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.78
Greece and Netherlands attack and defence ratings
Greece
Netherlands
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Greece vs Netherlands: result vs prediction
Greece 2 – 2 Netherlands
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Greece vs Netherlands markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 51.8% | 1.93 | +26.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Greece | 24.5% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Netherlands | 51.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 51.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 28.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 0-2 | 8.6% | |
| 1-3 | 8.1% |
Greece vs Netherlands stats
Greece and Netherlands recent form
| Greece |
WWDWLL |
| Netherlands |
WDDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Greece vs Netherlands head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-16 | Greece | Netherlands | Euro Championship - Qualification | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-07 | Netherlands | Greece | Euro Championship - Qualification | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Greece vs Netherlands odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.8%, draw 26.0%, away 45.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.50 | 3.76 | 2.08 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.65 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.50 | 3.76 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.41 | 3.64 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 3.05 | 3.44 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .