Germany
vs
Serbia
2 – 0 Full time
| 39′ | Tom Bischof | ||
| 45′ | Serge GnabrySaid El Mala | ||
| 61′ | Florian Wirtz | ||
| 66′ | Andrija ŽivkovićLazar Samardzic | ||
| 67′ | Strahinja ErakovicStrahinja Pavlovic | ||
| 67′ | Stefan DžodićMihajlo Cvetkovic | ||
| 67′ | Dušan TadićSaša Lukić | ||
| 73′ | Nemanja Gudelj | ||
| 77′ | Nick WoltemadeJonathan Burkardt | ||
| 77′ | Derry Lionel ScherhantBambasé Conté | ||
| 77′ | Tom BischofMika Baur | ||
| 79′ | Nemanja Maksimović | ||
| 79′ | Veljko Paunovic | ||
| 88′ | Aleksandar PavlovićVitaly Janelt | ||
| 88′ | Nemanja MaksimovićVasilije Kostov |
Match stats
| 32 | Shots | 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 74 | Possession % | 26 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 6 |
| 675 | Accurate passes | 188 |
Germany vs Serbia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Germany vs Serbia
| Probability | Germany | Draw | Serbia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 26.1% | 22.5% |
| Market | 79.3% | 13.7% | 7.0% |
| Final | 72.3% | 16.8% | 10.9% |
| Edge | -27.9% | +12.4% | +15.5% |
Why Germany
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.08.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Germany and Serbia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Germany and Serbia attack and defence ratings
Germany
Serbia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Germany vs Serbia: result vs prediction
Germany 2 – 0 Serbia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League A - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Germany vs Serbia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Germany | 72.3% | 1.38 | -27.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.1% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Germany | 72.3% |
| Draw | 16.8% | |
| Serbia | 10.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Germany win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
Germany vs Serbia stats
Germany vs Serbia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-20 | Germany | Serbia | Friendlies | 1-1 |
| 2010-06-18 | Germany | Serbia | World Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Germany vs Serbia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.3%, draw 13.7%, away 7.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 6.95 | 14.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.17 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.22 | 7.10 | 16.00 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 6.95 | 14.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 7.05 | 13.56 |
| SBO | 1.19 | 6.86 | 10.60 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .