Serbia
vs
Netherlands
1 – 2 Full time
| 12′ | Saša Lukić | ||
| 17′ | Cody GakpoRuben van Bommel | ||
| 30′ | Mexx Meerdink | ||
| 45′ | Sergej Milinković-SavićDušan Tadić | ||
| 45′ | Dejan JoveljićLuka Jovic | ||
| 46′ | Luka Jovic | ||
| 59′ | Aleksandar StankovicNemanja Maksimović | ||
| 59′ | Kosta NedeljkovicStrahinja Erakovic | ||
| 67′ | Tijjani ReijndersKenneth Taylor | ||
| 67′ | Ryan GravenberchGuus Til | ||
| 69′ | Mexx Meerdink | ||
| 71′ | Strahinja PavlovicFilip Kostić | ||
| 80′ | Mexx MeerdinkQuinten Timber | ||
| 80′ | Denzel DumfriesJurriën Timber | ||
| 85′ | Jurriën Timber |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 25 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 33 | Possession % | 67 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 5 |
| 234 | Accurate passes | 572 |
Serbia vs Netherlands overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Serbia vs Netherlands
| Probability | Serbia | Draw | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.9% | 13.9% | 79.3% |
| Market | 12.3% | 19.8% | 67.9% |
| Final | 11.0% | 18.3% | 70.7% |
| Edge | -5.5% | -5.9% | +11.4% |
Why Netherlands
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Netherlands below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Serbia and Netherlands expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Serbia and Netherlands attack and defence ratings
Serbia
Netherlands
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Serbia vs Netherlands: result vs prediction
Serbia 1 – 2 Netherlands
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Serbia vs Netherlands markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 70.7% | 1.41 | +11.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Serbia | 11.0% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Netherlands | 70.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 60.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 20.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.6% |
| 0-3 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 8.4% |
Serbia vs Netherlands stats
Serbia and Netherlands recent form
| Serbia |
LWLWLL |
| Netherlands |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Serbia vs Netherlands head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Serbia vs Netherlands odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.3%, draw 19.8%, away 67.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.70 | 5.05 | 1.42 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 4.75 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 5.10 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| Marathonbet | 7.70 | 5.05 | 1.42 |
| Pinnacle | 7.37 | 5.05 | 1.42 |
| SBO | 6.66 | 4.49 | 1.33 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
19 snapshots recorded, from .