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UEFA Nations League · Full time ·League A - 1

Serbia vs Greece

1 – 2 Full time

4′Andrija Živković
45′Mihajlo CvetkovicSaša Lukić
63′Dušan Tadić
63′Charalampos KostoulasFotis Ioannidis
71′Luka JovicDejan Joveljić
71′Filip KostićAleksa Terzić
72′Aleksa Terzić
74′Christos Tzolis
74′Vangelis PavlidisAndrews Tetteh
74′Konstantinos KaretsasAnastasios Douvikas
81′Nikola SimićNemanja Gudelj
83′Christos Zafeiris
90′Dušan TadićPetar Sukacev
90′Konstantinos MavropanosGiannis Michailidis
90′Christos ZafeirisAthanasios Androutsos
90′Anastasios Douvikas

Rajko Mitić Stadion, BelgradeReferee: Glenn Nyberg

Serbia 35%
Draw 29%
Greece 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 26
4 Shots on target 9
39 Possession % 61
2 Corners 6
11 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
7 Saves 3
323 Accurate passes 525

Serbia vs Greece overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Serbia vs Greece

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySerbiaDrawGreece
Model38.6%27.8%33.7%
Market33.9%29.7%36.4%
Final35.1%29.2%35.7%
Edge+4.7%-1.9%-2.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Greece

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.82.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Serbia ↓ / Greece → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 12% 7% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Serbia and Greece expected goals

Serbia 0.82
Greece 1.90

Total expected goals: 2.72

Serbia and Greece attack and defence ratings

Serbia

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Greece

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Serbia vs Greece: result vs prediction

Serbia 1 – 2 Greece

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League A - 1 fixtures

UEFA Nations League

Before and after this match

Serbia vs Greece markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Greece 35.7% 2.80 -2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.5% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.5% 1.74 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.8% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.3% 2.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Serbia35.1%
Draw29.2%
Greece35.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
Both teams to scoreYes57.5%
No42.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.3%
12 (either side)70.8%
X2 (draw or away)64.9%
Handicap -1Greece win37.6%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss38.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
2-18.6%
1-28.0%

Serbia vs Greece stats

Serbia and Greece recent form

newest first
Serbia WLWLLW
Greece DWLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Serbia vs Greece head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Serbia vs Greece odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 29.7%, away 36.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.89 3.28 2.63
Bet365 2.75 3.20 2.60
BetVictor 2.80 3.20 2.55
Betano 2.92 3.25 2.67
Betfair 2.80 3.20 2.60
Marathonbet 2.89 3.28 2.62
Pinnacle 2.88 3.30 2.61
SBO 2.66 3.01 2.62
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.25
X 3.20 ▼ -0.10
2 2.61 ▼ -0.09

14 snapshots recorded, from .