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UEFA Nations League · Full time ·League A - 1

Italy vs Belgium

0 – 2 Full time

20′Mika Godts
25′Nicolas Raskin
29′Diego Moreira
58′Kevin De BruyneHans Vanaken
58′Diego MoreiraDodi Lukebakio
63′Gianluca Mancini
65′Diego CoppolaGiorgio Scalvini
65′Pio EspositoDaniel Maldini
65′Alessandro RomanoDavide Frattesi
69′Dodi Lukebakio
74′Nicolas RaskinRomeo Lavia
80′Romeo Lavia
80′Nicolò BarellaIssa Doumbia
80′Nicolo CambiaghiMohamed Alì Zoma
83′Mika GodtsMatias Fernandez-Pardo
83′Charles De KetelaereRomelu Lukaku
89′Matias Fernandez-Pardo
90′Daniel Maldini
90′Gianluigi Donnarumma
90′Romelu Lukaku

Stadio Olimpico, RomeReferee: Daniel Siebert

Italy 39%
Draw 25%
Belgium 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 19
6 Shots on target 8
56 Possession % 44
4 Corners 8
12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
6 Saves 6
539 Accurate passes 408

Italy vs Belgium overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Italy vs Belgium

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityItalyDrawBelgium
Model27.6%21.9%50.5%
Market43.3%26.0%30.7%
Final39.3%25.0%35.7%
Edge-15.7%-4.1%+19.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Italy

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Italy ↓ / Belgium → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 8% 6% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Italy and Belgium expected goals

Italy 1.76
Belgium 2.25

Total expected goals: 4.01

Italy and Belgium attack and defence ratings

Italy

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Belgium

Attack 2.02 +102%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Italy vs Belgium: result vs prediction

Italy 0 – 2 Belgium

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League A - 1 fixtures

UEFA Nations League

Before and after this match

Italy vs Belgium markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Italy 39.3% 2.54 -15.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.7% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.3% 1.38 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.1% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Italy39.3%
Draw25.0%
Belgium35.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.7%
Under 2.526.3%
Both teams to scoreYes72.3%
No27.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.3%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)60.7%
Handicap -1Italy win15.2%
Push (exactly one goal)14.7%
Loss70.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.6%
1-18.5%
2-27.0%

Italy vs Belgium stats

Italy and Belgium recent form

newest first
Italy DWLWWW
Belgium LWWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Italy vs Belgium head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

4Italy wins 1Draws 0Belgium wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-11-14BelgiumItalyUEFA Nations League0-1
2024-10-10ItalyBelgiumUEFA Nations League2-2
2021-10-10ItalyBelgiumUEFA Nations League2-1
2021-07-02BelgiumItalyEuro Championship1-2
2016-06-13BelgiumItalyEuro Championship0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Italy vs Belgium odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 26.3%, away 30.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.25 3.72 3.14
Bet365 2.20 3.60 3.10
BetVictor 2.15 3.70 3.00
Betano 2.22 3.55 3.15
Betfair 2.20 3.50 3.10
Marathonbet 2.25 3.72 3.15
Pinnacle 2.26 3.69 3.13
SBO 2.16 3.38 3.02
William Hill 2.15 3.30 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.22 ▼ -0.08
X 3.69 ▲ +0.19
2 3.13 ▲ +0.20

16 snapshots recorded, from .