Portugal
vs
Wales
1 – 0 Full time
| 22′ | Joao Felix | ||
| 63′ | David BrooksDaniel James | ||
| 67′ | Rúben NevesJoão Palhinha | ||
| 67′ | Cristiano RonaldoGonçalo Ramos | ||
| 71′ | Ben Cabango | ||
| 71′ | Ben CabangoChris Mepham | ||
| 77′ | Lewis KoumasKieffer Moore | ||
| 77′ | Jordan JamesSorba Thomas | ||
| 78′ | Nuno MendesNuno Tavares | ||
| 90′ | João CanceloDiogo Dalot | ||
| 90′ | Bruno FernandesJoão Neves |
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 569 | Accurate passes | 325 |
Portugal vs Wales overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portugal vs Wales
| Probability | Portugal | Draw | Wales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.4% | 24.5% | 25.1% |
| Market | 81.6% | 12.7% | 5.6% |
| Final | 73.8% | 15.7% | 10.5% |
| Edge | -31.3% | +11.8% | +19.5% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portugal and Wales expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Portugal and Wales attack and defence ratings
Portugal
Wales
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Portugal vs Wales: result vs prediction
Portugal 1 – 0 Wales
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League A - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portugal vs Wales markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | 73.8% | 1.35 | -31.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.5% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | 73.8% |
| Draw | 15.7% | |
| Wales | 10.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% |
| No | 37.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portugal win | 8.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.7% | |
| Loss | 79.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Portugal vs Wales stats
Portugal vs Wales head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-06 | Portugal | Wales | Euro Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portugal vs Wales odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 81.6%, draw 12.7%, away 5.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 7.70 | 17.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
| Betano | 1.21 | 7.30 | 17.00 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 7.70 | 17.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.32 | 16.48 |
| SBO | 1.17 | 7.05 | 12.52 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .