Netherlands
vs
Germany
1 – 1 Full time
| 22′ | Quinten Timber | ||
| 24′ | Jan Paul van Hecke | ||
| 30′ | Kai HavertzYounes Ebnoutalib | ||
| 32′ | Felix Nmecha | ||
| 35′ | Brian BrobbeyMexx Meerdink | ||
| 57′ | Quinten TimberJoey Veerman | ||
| 64′ | Kevin SchadeChris Führich | ||
| 64′ | Felix NmechaAnton Stach | ||
| 68′ | Nadiem Amiri | ||
| 69′ | Virgil van Dijk | ||
| 80′ | Nadiem AmiriYannick Engelhardt | ||
| 80′ | Karim AdeyemiSerge Gnabry | ||
| 83′ | Tijjani ReijndersGuus Til | ||
| 83′ | Crysencio SummervilleRuben van Bommel | ||
| 90′ | Cody Gakpo |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 9 |
| 348 | Accurate passes | 303 |
Netherlands vs Germany overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Netherlands vs Germany
| Probability | Netherlands | Draw | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 23.4% | 27.1% |
| Market | 36.6% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| Final | 39.8% | 24.9% | 35.3% |
| Edge | +13.0% | -2.0% | -11.0% |
Why Netherlands
- The market prices Netherlands below the model: +13.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Netherlands and Germany expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Netherlands and Germany attack and defence ratings
Netherlands
Germany
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Netherlands vs Germany: result vs prediction
Netherlands 1 – 1 Germany
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Netherlands vs Germany markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 39.8% | 2.51 | +13.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 39.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Germany | 35.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% |
| No | 32.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 7.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.7% | |
| Loss | 80.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Netherlands vs Germany stats
Netherlands and Germany recent form
| Netherlands |
DWWDWD |
| Germany |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Netherlands vs Germany head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-14 | Germany | Netherlands | UEFA Nations League | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-10 | Netherlands | Germany | UEFA Nations League | 2-2 |
| 2024-03-26 | Germany | Netherlands | Friendlies | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-29 | Netherlands | Germany | Friendlies | 1-1 |
| 2019-09-06 | Germany | Netherlands | Euro Championship | 2-4 |
| 2019-03-24 | Netherlands | Germany | Euro Championship | 2-3 |
| 2018-11-19 | Germany | Netherlands | UEFA Nations League | 2-2 |
| 2018-10-13 | Netherlands | Germany | UEFA Nations League | 3-0 |
| 2012-06-13 | Netherlands | Germany | Euro Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Netherlands vs Germany odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 25.4%, away 38.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 3.86 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.90 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.82 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.81 | 2.52 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .