England
vs
Spain
2 – 3 Full time
| 2′ | Lamine Yamal | ||
| 36′ | Anthony Gordon | ||
| 40′ | Harry Kane | ||
| 55′ | Ferrán TorresMikel Oyarzabal | ||
| 55′ | Nico WilliamsAlejandro Baena Rodríguez | ||
| 60′ | Alejandro Baena Rodríguez | ||
| 67′ | Nico O'Reilly | ||
| 69′ | Marc Guehi | ||
| 70′ | Fabián RuizPedri | ||
| 70′ | Myles Lewis-SkellyJames Garner | ||
| 70′ | Anthony GordonMorgan Rogers | ||
| 74′ | Mikel Oyarzabal | ||
| 81′ | Jude Bellingham | ||
| 82′ | Daniel Olmo CarvajalMikel Merino | ||
| 83′ | Bukayo SakaMorgan Gibbs-White | ||
| 83′ | Harry KaneDominic Calvert-Lewin | ||
| 89′ | Marc GuehiJarrad Branthwaite |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 402 | Accurate passes | 457 |
England vs Spain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: England vs Spain
| Probability | England | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.0% | 21.3% | 63.8% |
| Market | 26.5% | 27.3% | 46.2% |
| Final | 23.6% | 25.8% | 50.6% |
| Edge | -11.6% | -6.0% | +17.6% |
Why Spain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 5 for the opposition.
- The market prices Spain below the model: +17.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
England and Spain expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
England and Spain attack and defence ratings
England
Spain
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
England vs Spain: result vs prediction
England 2 – 3 Spain
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
England vs Spain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 50.6% | 1.98 | +17.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | 23.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Spain | 50.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 49.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 28.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.1% |
| 1-1 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
England vs Spain stats
England vs Spain head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-14 | Spain | England | Euro Championship | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-15 | Spain | England | UEFA Nations League | 2-3 |
| 2018-09-08 | England | Spain | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
England vs Spain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.5%, draw 27.3%, away 46.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.64 | 3.57 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.45 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.56 | 2.09 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | 3.52 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 3.09 | 3.34 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .