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UEFA Nations League · Full time ·League A - 2

Norway vs Portugal

1 – 2 Full time

16′Julian Ryerson
17′Joao Felix
20′Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus
47′Fredrik Aursnes
49′João Palhinha
51′Erling Haaland
54′Gonçalo Ramos
55′João NevesVitinha
56′Francisco ConceicaoRafael Leão
65′Kristoffer Ajer
66′Julian RyersonLeo Østigård
67′Renato Veiga
72′Patrick BergOscar Bobb
76′Vitinha
76′João Cancelo
80′João PalhinhaRúben Neves
81′Gonçalo RamosFrancisco Trincão
81′Antonio NusaJörgen Strand Larsen
87′Pedro NetoBernardo Silva
87′Rúben Dias
90′Bernardo Silva

Ullevaal Stadion, OsloReferee: Francois Letexier

Norway 38%
Draw 24%
Portugal 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 4
62 Possession % 38
7 Corners 2
8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
2 Saves 5
490 Accurate passes 288

Norway vs Portugal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Norway vs Portugal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNorwayDrawPortugal
Model25.9%21.6%52.5%
Market41.9%25.0%33.0%
Final37.9%24.2%37.9%
Edge-16.0%-3.4%+19.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Norway

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Norway ↓ / Portugal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 9% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

Norway and Portugal expected goals

Norway 1.69
Portugal 2.16

Total expected goals: 3.85

Norway and Portugal attack and defence ratings

Norway

Attack 2.17 +117%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Portugal

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Norway vs Portugal: result vs prediction

Norway 1 – 2 Portugal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League A - 2 fixtures

UEFA Nations League

Before and after this match

Norway vs Portugal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Norway 37.9% 2.64 -16.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.7% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.8% 1.39 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.3% 1.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Norway37.9%
Draw24.2%
Portugal37.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.7%
Under 2.526.3%
Both teams to scoreYes71.8%
No28.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.1%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)62.1%
Handicap -1Norway win14.9%
Push (exactly one goal)14.8%
Loss70.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.7%
1-18.5%
2-26.8%

Norway vs Portugal stats

Norway and Portugal recent form

newest first
Norway WLWWLW
Portugal WLWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Norway vs Portugal head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Norway vs Portugal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 25.0%, away 33.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.34 3.82 2.92
Bet365 2.25 3.70 2.90
BetVictor 2.20 3.90 2.80
Betano 2.32 3.80 2.80
Betfair 2.20 3.80 2.88
Marathonbet 2.34 3.82 2.92
Pinnacle 2.27 3.91 2.97
SBO 2.32 3.54 2.65
William Hill 2.25 3.50 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.27 ▼ -0.61
X 3.80 ▲ +0.08
2 2.88 ▲ +0.55

20 snapshots recorded, from .