Belgium
vs
France
0 – 1 Full time
| 42′ | Diego Moreira | ||
| 57′ | Kevin De Bruyne | ||
| 63′ | Kevin De BruyneHans Vanaken | ||
| 63′ | Diego MoreiraDodi Lukebakio | ||
| 66′ | Youri Tielemans | ||
| 68′ | Joaquin SeysMaxim De Cuyper | ||
| 68′ | Esteban LepaulOusmane Dembélé | ||
| 77′ | Maghnes AklioucheRayan Cherki | ||
| 77′ | Bradley BarcolaMichael Olise | ||
| 85′ | Romeo LaviaNicolas Raskin | ||
| 85′ | Charles De KetelaereMatias Fernandez-Pardo | ||
| 88′ | Michael Olise | ||
| 90′ | Lucas Da CunhaManu Koné |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 35 | Possession % | 65 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 300 | Accurate passes | 625 |
Belgium vs France overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Belgium vs France
| Probability | Belgium | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 22.2% | 36.9% |
| Market | 24.4% | 24.3% | 51.3% |
| Final | 28.6% | 23.8% | 47.7% |
| Edge | +16.5% | -2.1% | -14.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Belgium and France expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.04
Belgium and France attack and defence ratings
Belgium
France
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Belgium vs France: result vs prediction
Belgium 0 – 1 France
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League A - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Belgium vs France markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 47.7% | 2.10 | -14.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belgium | 28.6% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| France | 47.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.2% |
| No | 24.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | France win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 62.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.1% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Belgium vs France stats
Belgium vs France head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-14 | Belgium | France | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-09 | France | Belgium | UEFA Nations League | 2-0 |
| 2024-07-01 | France | Belgium | Euro Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-07 | Belgium | France | UEFA Nations League | 2-3 |
| 2018-07-10 | France | Belgium | World Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Belgium vs France odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.4%, draw 24.3%, away 51.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.88 | 4.14 | 1.88 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.88 | 4.15 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 3.99 | 3.88 | 1.90 |
| SBO | 3.62 | 3.72 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .