Wales
vs
Denmark
0 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | Pierre-Emile HøjbjergAndreas Skov Olsen | ||
| 29′ | Liam Cullen | ||
| 56′ | Lewis KoumasMark Harris | ||
| 56′ | Jordan JamesJosh Sheehan | ||
| 66′ | Ben Cabango | ||
| 75′ | Rasmus Højlund | ||
| 76′ | Brennan JohnsonWes Burns | ||
| 76′ | Liam CullenJoel Colwill | ||
| 76′ | Rasmus KristensenAnton Gaaei | ||
| 80′ | Sorba Thomas | ||
| 82′ | Gustav IsaksenMathias Kvistgaarden | ||
| 82′ | Rasmus HøjlundKasper Høgh | ||
| 83′ | Ben DaviesKieffer Moore | ||
| 90′ | Mads Hermansen |
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 479 | Accurate passes | 377 |
Wales vs Denmark overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wales vs Denmark
| Probability | Wales | Draw | Denmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.5% | 22.8% | 40.7% |
| Market | 24.5% | 27.4% | 48.1% |
| Final | 27.5% | 26.2% | 46.3% |
| Edge | +11.9% | -4.5% | -7.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wales and Denmark expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.84
Wales and Denmark attack and defence ratings
Wales
Denmark
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wales vs Denmark: result vs prediction
Wales 0 – 1 Denmark
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wales vs Denmark markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Denmark | 46.3% | 2.16 | -7.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wales | 27.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Denmark | 46.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% |
| No | 26.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Denmark win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 59.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Wales vs Denmark stats
Wales vs Denmark head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Denmark | Wales | UEFA Nations League | 2-0 |
| 2021-06-26 | Wales | Denmark | Euro Championship | 0-4 |
| 2018-11-16 | Wales | Denmark | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
| 2018-09-09 | Denmark | Wales | UEFA Nations League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wales vs Denmark odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.5%, draw 27.4%, away 48.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.95 | 3.62 | 1.99 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.55 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.95 | 3.62 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.98 | 3.54 | 2.00 |
| SBO | 3.21 | 3.26 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .