Italy
vs
Türkiye
3 – 1 Full time
| 26′ | Gianluca Scamacca | ||
| 42′ | Gianluca Scamacca | ||
| 47′ | Matteo Ruggeri | ||
| 55′ | Zeki Çelik | ||
| 55′ | Giovanni Di LorenzoMichael Kayode | ||
| 56′ | Gianluca ScamaccaPio Esposito | ||
| 56′ | Matteo RuggeriRiccardo Calafiori | ||
| 61′ | Aral Simsir | ||
| 64′ | Riccardo Calafiori | ||
| 70′ | Nicolò BarellaSandro Tonali | ||
| 70′ | İrfan Can KahveciBartuğ Elmaz | ||
| 70′ | Aral SimsirIlhan Fakili | ||
| 79′ | Ismail YüksekKerem Aktürkoğlu | ||
| 81′ | Abdulkerim Bardakçı | ||
| 84′ | Antonio VergaraDavide Frattesi | ||
| 87′ | Pio Esposito | ||
| 88′ | Yunus AkgünDeniz Gül | ||
| 88′ | Ferdi KadıoğluOğuz Aydın |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 394 | Accurate passes | 496 |
Italy vs Türkiye overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Italy vs Türkiye
| Probability | Italy | Draw | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.0% | 20.5% | 19.5% |
| Market | 69.9% | 18.1% | 12.0% |
| Final | 67.4% | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| Edge | -9.8% | +2.4% | +7.4% |
Why Italy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Italy and Türkiye expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Italy and Türkiye attack and defence ratings
Italy
Türkiye
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Italy vs Türkiye: result vs prediction
Italy 3 – 1 Türkiye
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Italy vs Türkiye markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Italy | 67.4% | 1.48 | -9.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Italy win | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Italy | 67.4% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| Türkiye | 13.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% |
| No | 32.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Italy win | 39.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
Italy vs Türkiye stats
Italy vs Türkiye head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Türkiye | Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1-4 |
| 2024-06-04 | Italy | Türkiye | Friendlies | 0-0 |
| 2022-03-29 | Türkiye | Italy | Friendlies | 2-3 |
| 2021-06-11 | Türkiye | Italy | Euro Championship | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Italy vs Türkiye odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.9%, draw 18.1%, away 12.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 5.25 | 7.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 5.30 | 7.70 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 5.25 | 7.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.30 | 7.98 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.78 | 7.14 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .