Türkiye
vs
Belgium
Garuda Lions Prediction: Belgium
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.20.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Türkiye vs Belgium overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Türkiye vs Belgium
| Probability | Türkiye | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.9% | 15.6% | 72.6% |
| Market | 26.7% | 22.1% | 51.2% |
| Final | 23.0% | 20.5% | 56.5% |
| Edge | -3.7% | -1.6% | +5.3% |
Why Belgium
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Belgium below our published probability: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (our 56.5% × 1.80 − 1).
Türkiye vs Belgium match preview
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League match, Türkiye faces Belgium with a kickoff scheduled for November 12, 2026. According to our model, Türkiye has a 23% chance of winning, while Belgium is favored at 57%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Expected goals for Türkiye stand at 1.20, contrasting with Belgium's 2.96, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the visitors.
Recent form shows Türkiye struggling with four consecutive losses followed by a win and another loss, while Belgium has alternated results, winning three of their last six matches. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 67%. Historically, Türkiye has not secured a win against Belgium, with their last encounter resulting in a victory for the latter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Türkiye and Belgium expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.16
Türkiye and Belgium attack and defence ratings
Türkiye
Belgium
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League A - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Türkiye vs Belgium markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belgium | 56.5% | 1.77 | +5.3% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.4% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Belgium win | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Türkiye | 23.0% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Belgium | 56.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Belgium win | 53.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 27.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-3 | 8.1% | |
| 0-2 | 6.8% |
Türkiye vs Belgium stats
Türkiye vs Belgium head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Belgium | Türkiye | UEFA Nations League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Türkiye vs Belgium odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 22.1%, away 51.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.45 | 4.17 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .