Italy
vs
France
Garuda Lions Prediction: France
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.69.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — France is the favourite, not a value bet.
Italy vs France overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Italy vs France
| Probability | Italy | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.8% | 22.9% | 45.2% |
| Market | 26.0% | 22.8% | 51.2% |
| Final | 27.5% | 22.8% | 49.7% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +0.0% | -1.5% |
Why France
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.69.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (our 49.7% × 1.80 − 1).
Italy vs France match preview
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League match between Italy and France, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Italy at 27% to win, a draw at 23%, and France leading at 50%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2 in favor of France, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 for Italy and 2.03 for France.
Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with the model suggesting a 72% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 72% likelihood that both teams will score. Recent form shows Italy with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while France has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record in the last five meetings is evenly matched, with Italy securing two wins, France two wins, and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Italy and France expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Italy and France attack and defence ratings
Italy
France
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League A - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Italy vs France markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 49.7% | 2.01 | -1.5% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Italy | 27.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| France | 49.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.6% |
| No | 28.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | France win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Italy vs France stats
Italy vs France head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | France | Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-17 | Italy | France | UEFA Nations League | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-06 | France | Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1-3 |
| 2018-06-01 | France | Italy | Friendlies | 3-1 |
| 2008-06-17 | France | Italy | Euro Championship | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Italy vs France odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.0%, draw 22.8%, away 51.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 4.05 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .