France
vs
Belgium
4 – 1 Full time
| 35′ | Dodi Lukebakio | ||
| 57′ | Romeo Lavia | ||
| 60′ | Ousmane DembéléMichael Olise | ||
| 60′ | Maghnes AklioucheRayan Cherki | ||
| 61′ | Manu KonéLucas Da Cunha | ||
| 69′ | Maxence Lacroix | ||
| 70′ | Dodi LukebakioMika Godts | ||
| 70′ | Romelu LukakuCharles De Ketelaere | ||
| 72′ | Bradley BarcolaDésiré Doue | ||
| 73′ | Mark van Bommel | ||
| 75′ | Joaquin Seys | ||
| 77′ | Désiré Doue | ||
| 81′ | Rayan Cherki | ||
| 87′ | Romeo LaviaMandela Keita | ||
| 87′ | Diego MoreiraLoïs Openda | ||
| 87′ | Hans VanakenLeandro Trossard | ||
| 88′ | Eduardo CamavingaAdrien Rabiot | ||
| 88′ | Michael Olise | ||
| 90′ | Michael Olise |
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 66 | Possession % | 34 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 624 | Accurate passes | 287 |
France vs Belgium overview
Garuda Lions analysis: France vs Belgium
| Probability | France | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.8% | 23.5% | 53.7% |
| Market | 64.3% | 20.7% | 15.0% |
| Final | 54.0% | 21.4% | 24.7% |
| Edge | -41.5% | +2.8% | +38.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
France and Belgium expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
France and Belgium attack and defence ratings
France
Belgium
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
France vs Belgium: result vs prediction
France 4 – 1 Belgium
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
France vs Belgium markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 54.0% | 1.85 | -41.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 54.0% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Belgium | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% |
| No | 37.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | France win | 9.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.2% | |
| Loss | 76.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
France vs Belgium stats
France vs Belgium head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Belgium | France | UEFA Nations League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-14 | Belgium | France | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-09 | France | Belgium | UEFA Nations League | 2-0 |
| 2024-07-01 | France | Belgium | Euro Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-07 | Belgium | France | UEFA Nations League | 2-3 |
| 2018-07-10 | France | Belgium | World Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
France vs Belgium odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.3%, draw 20.7%, away 15.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.85 | 6.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.75 | 6.30 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.85 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.76 | 6.36 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.53 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .