Poisson Distribution Football Goals Predictions

A quick look at every fixture with a live Goals prediction, updated as new matches enter the model.

9matches today 0high confidence

Goals markets cover totals beyond the classic 2.5 line. Every figure here is read off the models score grid for the fixture — the same grid behind our correct-score and BTTS probabilities.

Today's most goal-heavy fixture by the model: Tapatío v CA La Paz — 61% over 2.5. Across 17,257 played matches this season, 53% went over 2.5 goals (2.81 goals per match). How our model works →

Top Goals opportunities

highest model probability

Time	Match	Over 2.5	Fair odds	Conf
23:00	TapatíovCA La Paz	61%	1.64	Low	→
21:00	Platense FCvJuticalpa	56%	1.79	Low	→
23:00	Alianza ValleduparvÁguilas Doradas	55%	1.81	Low	→
22:30	Instituto CordobavBoca Juniors	50%	2.00	Low	→
23:30	LexingtonvFC Tulsa	49%	2.03	Low	→

Over 2.5 goals

53%

of 17,257 played matches

Goals per match

2.81

mean, latest season of each covered league

Frequencies above are counted from the 17,257 played matches of the latest season of each covered league across every league we cover — a record of what happened, not a prediction.

Today's fixtures for this market

9 fixtures

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
20:00	Atletico TorquevDanubio	1	Low	2.01	3.67	4.33	→
20:30	Delfin SCvMushuc Runa SC	1	Low	2.33	3.34	3.67	→
21:00	Gimnasia L.P.vAtletico Tucuman	1	Low	2.03	3.47	4.55	→
21:00	Platense FCvJuticalpa	1	Low	2.03	3.73	4.17	→
22:30	Instituto CordobavBoca Juniors	2	Low	3.14	3.09	2.79	→
23:00	Alianza ValleduparvÁguilas Doradas	1	Low	2.66	3.37	3.05	→
23:00	TapatíovCA La Paz	2	Low	2.95	3.97	2.45	→
23:00	Deportivo MaldonadovLiverpool Montevideo	1	Low	2.62	3.39	3.09	→
23:30	LexingtonvFC Tulsa	1	Low	1.86	3.97	4.79	→