Teuta Durrës
vs
AF Elbasani
Garuda Lions Prediction: Teuta Durrës
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.67.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani
| Probability | Teuta Durrës | Draw | AF Elbasani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.9% | 20.4% | 9.7% |
| Market | 56.1% | 25.4% | 18.5% |
| Final | 59.6% | 24.2% | 16.3% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.3% | -2.2% |
Why Teuta Durrës
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Teuta Durrës below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.2% per unit staked (our 59.6% × 1.75 − 1).
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani match preview
Teuta Durrës enters this match against AF Elbasani with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches. The model gives Teuta a 70% probability of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0, which has a 14% chance of occurring. They are expected to generate 2.10 expected goals, while AF Elbasani is projected to score only 0.68 goals.
In contrast, AF Elbasani's recent performance shows inconsistency, with one win in their last six matches, resulting in a 10% probability of victory according to the model. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 53%, while both teams scoring is estimated at 44%. Historically, AF Elbasani has had the upper hand in their last four encounters, winning twice and drawing twice against Teuta Durrës.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani attack and defence ratings
Teuta Durrës
AF Elbasani
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teuta Durrës | 59.6% | 1.68 | +3.5% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Teuta Durrës win | 46.0% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teuta Durrës | 59.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| AF Elbasani | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Teuta Durrës win | 46.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 30.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 3-0 | 9.7% |
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani stats
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani recent form
| Teuta Durrës |
WWWWWW |
| AF Elbasani |
LDDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani season so far
Teuta Durrës record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
AF Elbasani record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Teuta Durrës | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-06 | AF Elbasani | Teuta Durrës | Albania Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-03 | Teuta Durrës | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | AF Elbasani | Teuta Durrës | Albania Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-11 | Teuta Durrës | AF Elbasani | Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-15 | Teuta Durrës | AF Elbasani | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2025-01-11 | AF Elbasani | Teuta Durrës | Superliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-31 | Teuta Durrës | AF Elbasani | Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-26 | AF Elbasani | Teuta Durrës | Superliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.1%, draw 25.4%, away 18.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 3.56 | 4.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 3.56 | 4.80 |