Nacional Potosí
vs
Independiente Petrolero
3 – 0 Full time
Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero
| Probability | Nacional Potosí | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.5% | 26.6% | 20.0% |
| Market | 57.7% | 23.0% | 19.3% |
| Final | 56.7% | 23.9% | 19.5% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +3.6% | +0.7% |
Why Nacional Potosí
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.94.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional Potosí and Independiente Petrolero expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Nacional Potosí and Independiente Petrolero attack and defence ratings
Nacional Potosí
Independiente Petrolero
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero: result vs prediction
Nacional Potosí 3 – 0 Independiente Petrolero
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional Potosí | 56.7% | 1.76 | -4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional Potosí | 56.7% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Independiente Petrolero | 19.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional Potosí win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero stats
Nacional Potosí and Independiente Petrolero recent form
| Nacional Potosí |
WLLLWL |
| Independiente Petrolero |
WWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional Potosí and Independiente Petrolero going into this match
Nacional Potosí record
- They have won 6 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
Independiente Petrolero record
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Independiente Petrolero | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Nacional Potosí | Independiente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Independiente Petrolero | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.0%, draw 22.8%, away 19.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 4.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 3.86 | 4.24 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.62 | 4.01 |
| Superbet | 1.59 | 4.00 | 4.65 |
| Unibet | 1.50 | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .