Siroki Brijeg
vs
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Siroki Brijeg
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.75.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
| Probability | Siroki Brijeg | Draw | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.1% | 26.4% | 15.6% |
| Market | 47.3% | 28.8% | 23.9% |
| Final | 50.0% | 28.2% | 21.8% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -0.6% | -2.1% |
Why Siroki Brijeg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Siroki Brijeg below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (our 50.0% Γ 2.02 β 1).
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo match preview
Siroki Brijeg holds a slight advantage in the upcoming match against Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, with a 51% probability of winning compared to 21% for Zeljeznicar. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring with a 14% probability. Siroki Brijeg has an expected goals figure of 1.66, while Zeljeznicar Sarajevo is projected at 0.75.
Recent form shows Siroki Brijeg with mixed results, recording one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo has struggled, with no wins in their last five, resulting in four draws and one loss. The head-to-head record in the last ten encounters favors Siroki Brijeg, who has secured four wins and four draws against Zeljeznicar's two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack and defence ratings
Siroki Brijeg
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siroki Brijeg | 50.0% | 2.00 | +2.7% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.9% | 2.38 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siroki Brijeg | 50.0% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Siroki Brijeg win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 41.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.8% |
| 2-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 12.3% |
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo stats
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo recent form
| Siroki Brijeg |
LDWDLD |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo |
LLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo season so far
Siroki Brijeg record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Siroki Brijeg | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-21 | Siroki Brijeg | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Siroki Brijeg | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-16 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-02 | Siroki Brijeg | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Cup | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Siroki Brijeg | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-3 |
| 2024-08-03 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 29.0%, away 24.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.12 | 3.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.15 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.12 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.14 | 3.76 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.90 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .