Zrinjski
vs
FK Sarajevo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zrinjski
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.51.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo
| Probability | Zrinjski | Draw | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.6% | 24.0% | 9.4% |
| Market | 55.3% | 26.3% | 18.4% |
| Final | 58.1% | 25.7% | 16.2% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
Why Zrinjski
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Zrinjski below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (our 58.1% Γ 1.72 β 1).
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo match preview
Zrinjski enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five matches, while FK Sarajevo has had a mixed run, registering two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six games. According to our model, Zrinjski has a 58% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 1.74 compared to FK Sarajevo's 0.51. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Zrinjski, which reflects their solid defensive and offensive capabilities.
In terms of head-to-head encounters, the last ten matches show a balanced competition, with Zrinjski winning three times, FK Sarajevo also winning three times, and four matches ending in draws. The probabilities indicate a 26% chance of a draw and a 16% chance for FK Sarajevo to secure a victory. Both teams to score is estimated at 34%, while the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 39%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo attack and defence ratings
Zrinjski
FK Sarajevo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zrinjski | 58.1% | 1.72 | +2.8% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.0% | 1.51 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% | 1.19 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Zrinjski win | 39.8% | 2.51 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zrinjski | 58.1% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| FK Sarajevo | 16.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.0% |
| No | 66.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zrinjski win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 33.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.3% |
| 2-0 | 15.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo stats
Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo recent form
| Zrinjski |
WWWWWL |
| FK Sarajevo |
DWDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo season so far
Zrinjski record
- They have won 11 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Sarajevo record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | FK Sarajevo | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga | 0-1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Zrinjski | FK Sarajevo | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | FK Sarajevo | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Zrinjski | FK Sarajevo | Super Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Zrinjski | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-06 | FK Sarajevo | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Zrinjski | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-11 | FK Sarajevo | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-11 | Zrinjski | FK Sarajevo | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-25 | FK Sarajevo | Zrinjski | Cup | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.3%, draw 26.3%, away 18.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 3.46 | 5.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.35 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.42 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .