Velež
vs
Čelik
Garuda Lions Prediction: Velež
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.05.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Velež is the favourite, not a value bet.
Velež vs Čelik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Velež vs Čelik
| Probability | Velež | Draw | Čelik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 29.7% | 27.4% |
| Market | 58.7% | 25.6% | 15.7% |
| Final | 54.7% | 26.7% | 18.6% |
| Edge | -3.9% | +1.0% | +2.9% |
Why Velež
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.1% per unit staked (our 54.7% × 1.57 − 1).
Velež vs Čelik match preview
Velež will host Čelik in the upcoming match on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Velež has a 49% probability of winning, while Čelik stands at 22%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Velež is 1.37, compared to Čelik's 1.05, indicating a slight edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Velež has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Čelik has one win and five matches without a win. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters shows Velež with one win and Čelik with two. Our model suggests a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Velež and Čelik expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Velež and Čelik attack and defence ratings
Velež
Čelik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Velež vs Čelik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 54.7% | 1.83 | -3.9% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 54.7% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Čelik | 18.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Velež win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Velež vs Čelik stats
Velež and Čelik recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Velež and Čelik season so far
Velež record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Čelik record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Velež vs Čelik head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Čelik | Velež | Premijer Liga | 3-0 |
| 2019-10-25 | Čelik | Velež | Premijer Liga | 0-2 |
| 2019-08-03 | Velež | Čelik | Premijer Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Velež vs Čelik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.6%, draw 25.4%, away 16.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 3.50 | 5.83 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.70 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.65 | 5.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 3.75 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 3.50 | 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 3.69 | 5.81 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.40 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .