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CAF Confederation Cup · Postponed ·2nd Preliminary Round

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad

Garuda Lions Prediction: CR Belouizdad

0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CR Belouizdad is the favourite, not a value bet.
AC Douane 23%
Draw 28%
CR Belouizdad 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance CR Belouizdad wins
48%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
89%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
48%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAC DouaneDrawCR Belouizdad
Model39.2%30.6%30.1%
Market18.0%27.7%54.4%
Final23.3%28.4%48.3%
Edge+5.3%+0.7%-6.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why CR Belouizdad

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.3% per unit staked (our 48.3% × 1.67 − 1).

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad match preview

AC Douane faces CR Belouizdad in the CAF Confederation Cup with a kickoff scheduled for October 17, 2026. According to our model, AC Douane has a 23% chance of winning, while CR Belouizdad is favored at 48%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of CR Belouizdad, with a 9% probability. The expected goals for AC Douane are 1.26, compared to 1.07 for CR Belouizdad.

In terms of recent form, AC Douane has recorded a win and a draw, while CR Belouizdad is on a strong run, with four wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 41%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 48%. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AC Douane ↓ / CR Belouizdad → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 9% 1 11% 14% 7% 2 7% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

AC Douane and CR Belouizdad expected goals

AC Douane 1.23
CR Belouizdad 1.11

Total expected goals: 2.34

AC Douane and CR Belouizdad attack and defence ratings

AC Douane

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.95 -5%

CR Belouizdad

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

CAF Confederation Cup

Before and after this match

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CR Belouizdad 48.3% 2.07 -6.1% 1.67
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.9% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 51.7% 1.94 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.4% 1.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AC Douane23.3%
Draw28.4%
CR Belouizdad48.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%
Both teams to scoreYes48.3%
No51.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.7%
12 (either side)71.6%
X2 (draw or away)76.7%
Handicap -1CR Belouizdad win13.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss68.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-011.1%
1-010.9%
Compare prices for this pick

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad stats

AC Douane and CR Belouizdad recent form

newest first
AC Douane WD
CR Belouizdad WWWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.1%, draw 27.4%, away 54.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.99 3.24 1.67
Bet365 5.25 3.25 1.62
BetVictor 4.33 3.00 1.57
Dafabet 5.60 3.45 1.67
Marathonbet 4.85 3.24 1.65
William Hill 4.80 3.30 1.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.85 ▼ -0.36
X 3.24 ▲ +0.07
2 1.62 ▼ -0.05

4 snapshots recorded, from .

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