Al Ahly
vs
1º de Agosto
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ahly
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al Ahly vs 1º de Agosto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ahly vs 1º de Agosto
| Probability | Al Ahly | Draw | 1º de Agosto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.8% | 28.6% | 16.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.8% | 28.6% | 16.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Ahly
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Al Ahly vs 1º de Agosto match preview
Al Ahly enters the match against 1º de Agosto with a 55% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 29% and a victory for 1º de Agosto at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 15% chance of occurring. Al Ahly has shown strong recent form, recording five consecutive wins followed by a draw, while 1º de Agosto has also been performing well with four wins and a draw in their last five matches.
In terms of expected goals, Al Ahly is forecasted to score 1.49, compared to 0.71 for 1º de Agosto. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 38%, and both teams scoring is projected at 41%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ahly and 1º de Agosto expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Al Ahly and 1º de Agosto attack and defence ratings
Al Ahly
1º de Agosto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Caf Confederation Cup - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Ahly vs 1º de Agosto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahly | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahly | 54.8% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| 1º de Agosto | 16.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.6% |
| No | 59.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahly win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 45.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 12.3% |
Al Ahly vs 1º de Agosto stats
Al Ahly and 1º de Agosto recent form
| Al Ahly |
WWDWWW |
| 1º de Agosto |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.