1º de Agosto
vs
Virunga
Garuda Lions Prediction: 1º de Agosto
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
1º de Agosto vs Virunga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 1º de Agosto vs Virunga
| Probability | 1º de Agosto | Draw | Virunga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.0% | 32.2% | 17.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.0% | 32.2% | 17.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why 1º de Agosto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
1º de Agosto vs Virunga match preview
1º de Agosto faces Virunga in the CAF Confederation Cup on October 23, 2026. According to our model, 1º de Agosto holds a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 32% and Virunga at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of 1º de Agosto, with an 18% chance of occurring. The expected goals for 1º de Agosto are 1.25, compared to 0.64 for Virunga.
In terms of recent form, 1º de Agosto has recorded two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last four matches, while Virunga comes off a recent victory. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 29%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 35%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1º de Agosto and Virunga expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.89
1º de Agosto and Virunga attack and defence ratings
1º de Agosto
Virunga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
1º de Agosto vs Virunga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1º de Agosto | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1º de Agosto | 50.0% |
| Draw | 32.2% | |
| Virunga | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.0% |
| No | 65.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1º de Agosto win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.6% |
| 0-0 | 16.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
1º de Agosto vs Virunga stats
1º de Agosto and Virunga recent form
| 1º de Agosto |
WWDL |
| Virunga |
W |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.