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CAF Confederation Cup · Full time ·2nd Preliminary Round

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien

1 – 1 Full time

51′J. Loulendo
79′AFAD
AFAD 36%
Draw 32%
CS Sfaxien 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AFAD vs CS Sfaxien

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAFADDrawCS Sfaxien
Model27.9%30.5%41.6%
Market39.1%32.0%28.9%
Final36.3%31.6%32.1%
Edge-2.8%-0.4%+3.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AFAD ↓ / CS Sfaxien → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 12% 8% 1 9% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

AFAD and CS Sfaxien expected goals

AFAD 1.01
CS Sfaxien 1.31

Total expected goals: 2.32

AFAD and CS Sfaxien attack and defence ratings

AFAD

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.23 +23%

CS Sfaxien

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.60 -40%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien: result vs prediction

AFAD 1 – 1 CS Sfaxien

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

CAF Confederation Cup

Before and after this match

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AFAD 36.3% 2.76 -2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.2% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score No 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 68.4% 1.46 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 72.5% 1.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AFAD36.3%
Draw31.6%
CS Sfaxien32.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.8%
Under 2.559.2%
Both teams to scoreYes47.7%
No52.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.9%
12 (either side)68.4%
X2 (draw or away)63.7%
Handicap -1AFAD win10.6%
Push (exactly one goal)16.8%
Loss72.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.3%
0-111.5%
0-011.2%

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien stats

AFAD and CS Sfaxien recent form

newest first
AFAD DDLWWD
CS Sfaxien LWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 32.0%, away 28.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.29 2.80 3.17
Bet365 2.30 2.80 3.10
Betfair 2.30 2.88 3.10
Dafabet 2.39 2.90 3.25
Marathonbet 2.27 2.80 3.08
William Hill 2.30 2.62 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.29 —
X 2.80 —
2 3.10 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .