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Tunisia Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 5

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien

1 – 0 Full time

10′Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
10′CS Sfaxien
14′Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
19′CS Sfaxien
30′M. Omri
84′Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
90′Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 29%
Draw 35%
CS Sfaxien 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityProgrès Sakiet EddaïerDrawCS Sfaxien
Model28.2%39.2%32.6%
Market29.6%33.0%37.4%
Final29.2%34.6%36.2%
Edge-0.3%+1.5%-1.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why CS Sfaxien

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Progrès Sakiet ↓ / CS Sfaxien → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 24% 16% 1 15% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 76%
2+ goals 45%
3+ goals 19%
No goals 24%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and CS Sfaxien expected goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 0.71
CS Sfaxien 0.79

Total expected goals: 1.50

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and CS Sfaxien attack and defence ratings

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.70 -30%

CS Sfaxien

Attack 1.57 +57%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien: result vs prediction

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1 – 0 CS Sfaxien

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Tunisia Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CS Sfaxien 36.2% 2.76 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80.9% 1.24 — —
Both teams to score No 71.0% 1.41 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 70.8% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.4% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer29.2%
Draw34.6%
CS Sfaxien36.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.519.1%
Under 2.580.9%
Both teams to scoreYes29.0%
No71.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.8%
12 (either side)65.4%
X2 (draw or away)70.8%
Handicap -1CS Sfaxien win10.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss67.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-023.6%
0-116.3%
1-014.6%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien stats

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and CS Sfaxien recent form

newest first
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer DWDW
CS Sfaxien WDWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 33.0%, away 37.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.90 2.75 2.40
Betano 3.15 2.75 2.50
Betfair 3.00 2.80 2.40
Dafabet 3.15 2.75 2.50
Marathonbet 3.00 2.79 2.32
Pinnacle 3.16 2.71 2.46

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.