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Tunisia Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 5

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja

3 – 1 Full time

1′H. Mastouri
12′ES Tunis
13′H. Mastouri
36′Olympique Béja
48′H. Mastouri
59′Olympique Béja
89′ES Tunis

Stade Hedi-Enneifer, Le Bardo

ES Tunis 75%
Draw 17%
Olympique Béja 8%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityES TunisDrawOlympique Béja
Model57.3%27.1%15.7%
Market81.1%13.8%5.1%
Final75.1%17.1%7.7%
Edge-5.9%+3.3%+2.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why ES Tunis

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ES Tunis ↓ / Olympique Béja → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 14% 12% 2 12% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

ES Tunis and Olympique Béja expected goals

ES Tunis 1.61
Olympique Béja 0.73

Total expected goals: 2.33

ES Tunis and Olympique Béja attack and defence ratings

ES Tunis

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Olympique Béja

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja: result vs prediction

ES Tunis 3 – 1 Olympique Béja

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Tunisia Ligue 1

Before and after this match

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 ES Tunis 75.1% 1.33 -5.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.7% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 57.6% 1.74 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 92.3% 1.08 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.7% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ES Tunis75.1%
Draw17.1%
Olympique Béja7.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%
Both teams to scoreYes42.4%
No57.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)92.3%
12 (either side)82.9%
X2 (draw or away)24.9%
Handicap -1ES Tunis win31.8%
Push (exactly one goal)25.5%
Loss42.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.4%
2-012.5%
1-112.5%

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja stats

ES Tunis and Olympique Béja recent form

newest first
ES Tunis WWLWWL
Olympique Béja DDLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7ES Tunis wins 1Draws 2Olympique Béja wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-01Olympique BéjaES TunisTunisia Ligue 10-3
2025-09-24ES TunisOlympique BéjaTunisia Ligue 12-0
2025-05-11Olympique BéjaES TunisLigue 10-5
2025-01-22ES TunisOlympique BéjaLigue 11-1
2023-06-07ES TunisOlympique BéjaLigue 12-0
2023-05-28ES TunisOlympique BéjaCup0-1
2023-04-16Olympique BéjaES TunisLigue 12-0
2021-04-07ES TunisOlympique BéjaLigue 11-0
2021-01-26Olympique BéjaES TunisLigue 11-4
2016-12-04ES TunisOlympique BéjaLigue 12-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 81.1%, draw 13.8%, away 5.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.12 6.50 21.00
Betano 1.16 6.20 18.00
Betfair 1.11 6.50 18.00
Dafabet 1.14 7.00 17.00
Marathonbet 1.07 7.10 20.00
Pinnacle 1.14 6.74 15.91

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.