ES Metlaoui
vs
Stade Tunisien
1 – 2 Full time
| 41′ | C. Bodian | ||
| 81′ | Stade Tunisien | ||
| 90′ | F. Ben Youssef |
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
| Probability | ES Metlaoui | Draw | Stade Tunisien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 38.4% | 29.6% |
| Market | 26.7% | 33.1% | 40.2% |
| Final | 28.1% | 34.4% | 37.5% |
| Edge | +1.3% | +1.3% | -2.6% |
Why Stade Tunisien
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.56
ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien attack and defence ratings
ES Metlaoui
Stade Tunisien
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien: result vs prediction
ES Metlaoui 1 – 2 Stade Tunisien
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Tunisien | 37.5% | 2.67 | -2.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Metlaoui | 28.1% |
| Draw | 34.4% | |
| Stade Tunisien | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 79.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.7% |
| No | 69.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Tunisien win | 9.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 70.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 22.2% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 0-1 | 14.6% |
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien stats
ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien recent form
| ES Metlaoui |
LWLLDL |
| Stade Tunisien |
WLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | ES Metlaoui | Stade Tunisien | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Stade Tunisien | ES Metlaoui | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | ES Metlaoui | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-26 | Stade Tunisien | ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-27 | ES Metlaoui | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-26 | Stade Tunisien | ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Stade Tunisien | ES Metlaoui | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2021-03-31 | ES Metlaoui | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-12 | Stade Tunisien | ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2020-08-02 | ES Metlaoui | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 33.1%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.34 | 2.78 | 2.22 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 2.70 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 2.70 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 2.78 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | 2.65 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 2.62 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .