ES Metlaoui
vs
Stade Tunisien
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 22% model probability
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
| Probability | ES Metlaoui | Draw | Stade Tunisien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.8% | 38.3% | 29.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.8% | 38.3% | 29.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien match preview
In the upcoming Tunisia Ligue 1 match, ES Metlaoui faces Stade Tunisien with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model probabilities suggest a close contest, with ES Metlaoui at 32%, a draw at 38%, and Stade Tunisien at 30%. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, occurring at a rate of 22%. Both teams have low expected goals, with ES Metlaoui at 0.80 and Stade Tunisien at 0.77, indicating a potentially defensive matchup.
Recent form shows ES Metlaoui struggling with one win in their last six matches, while Stade Tunisien has had a slightly better run with two wins in their last six. In their last two head-to-head encounters, ES Metlaoui has not secured a win, recording one draw and one loss against Stade Tunisien. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.57
ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien attack and defence ratings
ES Metlaoui
Stade Tunisien
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Metlaoui | 31.8% |
| Draw | 38.3% | |
| Stade Tunisien | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 79.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.8% |
| No | 69.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 61.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Metlaoui win | 10.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 68.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 22.1% |
| 1-0 | 15.4% | |
| 0-1 | 14.7% |
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien stats
ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien recent form
| ES Metlaoui |
LWLLDL |
| Stade Tunisien |
WLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | ES Metlaoui | Stade Tunisien | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Stade Tunisien | ES Metlaoui | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.