AS Marsa
vs
ES Metlaoui
Garuda Lions Prediction: AS Marsa
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
| Probability | AS Marsa | Draw | ES Metlaoui |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 39.2% | 22.0% |
| Market | 46.2% | 31.4% | 22.4% |
| Final | 44.3% | 33.4% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -7.5% | +7.8% | -0.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui match preview
AS Marsa is set to face ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia Ligue 1, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, AS Marsa has a 39% probability of winning, while a draw also stands at 39%, and ES Metlaoui has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-0, with an expected goals tally of 0.87 for AS Marsa and 0.58 for ES Metlaoui.
In terms of recent form, AS Marsa has recorded a series of mixed results, with their last five matches yielding two draws, two losses, and one win. Conversely, ES Metlaoui has struggled, with only one win in their last six matches, including three consecutive losses. Historically, in their last two encounters, ES Metlaoui has emerged victorious on both occasions, further complicating AS Marsa's prospects.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.45
AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui attack and defence ratings
AS Marsa
ES Metlaoui
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AS Marsa | 44.3% | 2.26 | -7.5% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AS Marsa | 44.3% |
| Draw | 33.4% | |
| ES Metlaoui | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 17.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 82.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26.9% |
| No | 73.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | AS Marsa win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 24.6% |
| 1-0 | 19.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui stats
AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui recent form
| AS Marsa |
DWLDLD |
| ES Metlaoui |
LLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui season so far
AS Marsa record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
ES Metlaoui record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | ES Metlaoui | AS Marsa | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | AS Marsa | ES Metlaoui | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-12 | AS Marsa | ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-18 | ES Metlaoui | AS Marsa | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-03 | ES Metlaoui | AS Marsa | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | AS Marsa | ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 31.4%, away 22.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 2.85 | 4.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 2.85 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 2.98 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 2.75 | 4.00 |