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Tunisia Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 6

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane

0 – 2 Full time

19′ES Hammam-Sousse
29′G. Ayadi
30′ES Hammam-Sousse
54′US Ben Guerdane
57′ES Hammam-Sousse
74′ES Hammam-Sousse
75′ES Hammam-Sousse
75′US Ben Guerdane

Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium, Sousse

ES Hammam-Sousse 31%
Draw 33%
US Ben Guerdane 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityES Hammam-SousseDrawUS Ben Guerdane
Model18.7%33.3%47.9%
Market34.5%33.6%32.0%
Final30.5%33.5%36.0%
Edge-15.7%-0.2%+16.0%

Confidence: Low

Why US Ben Guerdane

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.64.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices US Ben Guerdane below the model: +16.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ES Hammam-Sous ↓ / US Ben Guerdan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 17% 18% 11% 1 9% 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 83%
2+ goals 56%
3+ goals 28%
No goals 17%

ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane expected goals

ES Hammam-Sousse 0.64
US Ben Guerdane 1.18

Total expected goals: 1.82

ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane attack and defence ratings

ES Hammam-Sousse

Attack 0.63 -37%
Defence 1.37 +37%

US Ben Guerdane

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: result vs prediction

ES Hammam-Sousse 0 – 2 US Ben Guerdane

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Tunisia Ligue 1

Before and after this match

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 US Ben Guerdane 36.0% 2.78 +16.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 72.5% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score No 66.1% 1.51 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 69.5% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.1% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ES Hammam-Sousse30.5%
Draw33.5%
US Ben Guerdane36.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527.5%
Under 2.572.5%
Both teams to scoreYes33.9%
No66.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.0%
12 (either side)66.5%
X2 (draw or away)69.5%
Handicap -1US Ben Guerdane win21.8%
Push (exactly one goal)26.1%
Loss52.1%
Correct score (top 3)0-117.9%
0-017.4%
1-113.4%

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane stats

ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane recent form

newest first
ES Hammam-Sousse LLLLD
US Ben Guerdane WWDDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.

ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane going into this match

league record before kick-off

ES Hammam-Sousse record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

US Ben Guerdane record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0ES Hammam-Sousse wins 1Draws 1US Ben Guerdane wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-04-10ES Hammam-SousseUS Ben GuerdaneLigue 11-1
2021-11-18US Ben GuerdaneES Hammam-SousseLigue 12-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 33.6%, away 32.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.56 2.67 2.80
Bet365 2.60 2.75 2.70
Marathonbet 2.56 2.67 2.80
Pinnacle 2.68 2.65 2.93
William Hill 2.70 2.50 2.90

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.