Tunisia Ligue 1
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
US Ben Guerdane
vs
Stade Tunisien
1 – 0 Full time
| 5′ | J. Abcha | ||
| 46′ | P. AgbanouA. Diakite | ||
| 46′ | N. ChachiaI. Touis | ||
| 52′ | Stade Tunisien | ||
| 54′ | I. Touis | ||
| 56′ | D. ObohH. Aboubacar | ||
| 60′ | M. KhemissiB. Hmidi | ||
| 60′ | M. ThiouneY. Toure | ||
| 65′ | A. Saihi | ||
| 68′ | A. Ben McharekM. H. Yeken | ||
| 68′ | G. AyadiW. Salhi | ||
| 73′ | A. Diakite | ||
| 81′ | S. SghaierY. Dhaflaoui | ||
| 86′ | A. Amri |
US Ben Guerdane
40%
Draw
33%
Stade Tunisien
27%
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien overview
Garuda Lions analysis: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
| Probability | US Ben Guerdane | Draw | Stade Tunisien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.2% | 28.6% | 18.2% |
| Market | 35.6% | 34.1% | 30.4% |
| Final | 40.0% | 32.7% | 27.3% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -1.4% | -3.0% |
Why US Ben Guerdane
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices US Ben Guerdane below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
12%
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien expected goals
US Ben Guerdane
1.50
Stade Tunisien
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.27
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien attack and defence ratings
US Ben Guerdane
Attack
1.33 +33%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Stade Tunisien
Attack
1.23 +23%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien: result vs prediction
US Ben Guerdane 1 – 0 Stade Tunisien
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
Before and after this match
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Ben Guerdane | 40.0% | 2.50 | +4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Ben Guerdane | 40.0% |
| Draw | 32.7% | |
| Stade Tunisien | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | US Ben Guerdane win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.5% |
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien stats
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien recent form
| US Ben Guerdane |
WWWDDW |
| Stade Tunisien |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien going into this match
US Ben Guerdane record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2US Ben Guerdane wins
6Draws
2Stade Tunisien wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Stade Tunisien | US Ben Guerdane | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | US Ben Guerdane | Stade Tunisien | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-27 | Stade Tunisien | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | US Ben Guerdane | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-12 | Stade Tunisien | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-03 | US Ben Guerdane | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-07 | US Ben Guerdane | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2021-01-27 | Stade Tunisien | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2020-08-30 | US Ben Guerdane | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2019-12-01 | Stade Tunisien | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 34.1%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 2.58 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 2.77 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 2.65 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 2.58 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.10 |