US Ben Guerdane
vs
Stade Tunisien
Garuda Lions Prediction: US Ben Guerdane
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien overview
Garuda Lions analysis: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
| Probability | US Ben Guerdane | Draw | Stade Tunisien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 28.6% | 18.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.1% | 28.6% | 18.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why US Ben Guerdane
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien match preview
US Ben Guerdane enters the match against Stade Tunisien with a strong recent form, having secured three wins and two draws in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.50, indicating a solid attacking performance. In contrast, Stade Tunisien has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their recent outings, with an expected goals figure of 0.78, suggesting they may struggle offensively.
The probability model gives US Ben Guerdane a 53% chance of winning, while Stade Tunisien has an 18% chance of victory, with a 29% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of US Ben Guerdane, occurring with a 14% probability. Both teams have a 43% chance of scoring, and there is a 40% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien attack and defence ratings
US Ben Guerdane
Stade Tunisien
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats
Before and after this match
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Ben Guerdane | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Ben Guerdane | 53.1% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Stade Tunisien | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | US Ben Guerdane win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.5% |
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien stats
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien recent form
| US Ben Guerdane |
WWWDDW |
| Stade Tunisien |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien season so far
US Ben Guerdane record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Stade Tunisien | US Ben Guerdane | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | US Ben Guerdane | Stade Tunisien | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.