ES Sahel
vs
CS Sfaxien
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien
| Probability | ES Sahel | Draw | CS Sfaxien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 33.2% | 44.5% |
| Market | 36.4% | 33.9% | 29.7% |
| Final | 32.8% | 33.7% | 33.4% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -0.2% | +3.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (our 33.7% × 2.70 − 1).
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien match preview
ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien are set for a closely contested match in the Tunisia Ligue 1, with both teams having equal chances according to the probabilities, each at 33%. The draw is slightly favored at 34%. Recent form shows ES Sahel with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches, while CS Sfaxien has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same period.
The expected goals indicate a tight encounter, with ES Sahel forecasted to score 0.75 and CS Sfaxien 1.17. The most likely scoreline from the model is 0-0, occurring at a rate of 16%. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.92
ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien attack and defence ratings
ES Sahel
CS Sfaxien
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
Before and after this match
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 33.7% | 2.96 | -0.2% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Sahel | 32.8% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| CS Sfaxien | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.6% |
| No | 62.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | CS Sfaxien win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.0% |
| 0-1 | 15.9% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien stats
ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien recent form
| ES Sahel |
WLLDWL |
| CS Sfaxien |
DWDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien season so far
ES Sahel record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CS Sfaxien record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | ES Sahel | CS Sfaxien | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | ES Sahel | CS Sfaxien | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-26 | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-15 | ES Sahel | CS Sfaxien | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-13 | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-27 | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-01 | ES Sahel | CS Sfaxien | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-25 | CS Sfaxien | ES Sahel | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2022-12-21 | ES Sahel | CS Sfaxien | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 33.9%, away 29.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 2.59 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 2.70 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 2.45 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 2.70 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.50 | 2.59 | 2.97 |
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 2.68 | 3.06 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.00 |