US Monastirienne
vs
ES Sahel
Garuda Lions Prediction: US Monastirienne
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.68.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel
| Probability | US Monastirienne | Draw | ES Sahel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.5% | 27.5% | 15.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.5% | 27.5% | 15.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why US Monastirienne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel match preview
In the upcoming match between US Monastirienne and ES Sahel, our model gives US Monastirienne a 57% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 27% and ES Sahel at 15%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of US Monastirienne, with an expected goals tally of 1.57 for them and 0.68 for ES Sahel.
Recent form shows US Monastirienne with a record of L-W-D-W-D-W, while ES Sahel has D-W-L-L-D-W. In their last two encounters, US Monastirienne has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss against ES Sahel. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 39%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 40%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
US Monastirienne and ES Sahel expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
US Monastirienne and ES Sahel attack and defence ratings
US Monastirienne
ES Sahel
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Monastirienne | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Monastirienne | 57.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| ES Sahel | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.3% |
| No | 59.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | US Monastirienne win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 2-0 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel stats
US Monastirienne and ES Sahel recent form
| US Monastirienne |
LWDWDW |
| ES Sahel |
DWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
US Monastirienne and ES Sahel season so far
US Monastirienne record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ES Sahel record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | ES Sahel | US Monastirienne | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | US Monastirienne | ES Sahel | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.