ES Hammam-Sousse
vs
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Garuda Lions Prediction: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0 – 1 Predicted score · 23% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.98 vs 0.42.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
| Probability | ES Hammam-Sousse | Draw | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 38.0% | 47.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.5% | 38.0% | 47.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.98 vs 0.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer match preview
ES Hammam-Sousse faces Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer in a Tunisia Ligue 1 match with kickoff scheduled for November 20, 2026. According to our model, ES Hammam-Sousse has a 14% chance of winning, while Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer is favored with a 48% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an occurrence rate of 23%. Expected goals for ES Hammam-Sousse stand at 0.42, compared to 0.98 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
Recent form shows ES Hammam-Sousse struggling with six consecutive losses, while Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer has a more favorable record, with two wins and two draws in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is low at 17%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 22%. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Hammam-Sousse and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.40
ES Hammam-Sousse and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack and defence ratings
ES Hammam-Sousse
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 14.5% |
| Draw | 38.0% | |
| Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 47.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 22.4% |
| No | 77.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.5% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 25.7% |
| 0-1 | 23.2% | |
| 0-2 | 11.8% |
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer stats
ES Hammam-Sousse and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer recent form
| ES Hammam-Sousse |
LLLLLL |
| Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer |
DLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Hammam-Sousse and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer season so far
ES Hammam-Sousse record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.