ES Tunis
vs
US Monastirienne
Garuda Lions Prediction: ES Tunis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne
| Probability | ES Tunis | Draw | US Monastirienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.7% | 30.0% | 25.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.7% | 30.0% | 25.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ES Tunis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne match preview
ES Tunis faces US Monastirienne in this Tunisia Ligue 1 matchup, with our model giving ES Tunis a 45% chance of winning, while the draw stands at 30% and US Monastirienne at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of ES Tunis, occurring with a 12% probability. Expected goals for ES Tunis are 1.36, compared to 0.96 for US Monastirienne, indicating a slight advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, ES Tunis has recorded three wins, one loss, and two wins in their last six matches, while US Monastirienne has drawn three times and won twice in their last six outings. Historically, the last two encounters show ES Tunis with no wins, one draw, and one loss to US Monastirienne. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne attack and defence ratings
ES Tunis
US Monastirienne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats
Before and after this match
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 44.7% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| US Monastirienne | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Tunis win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne stats
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne recent form
| ES Tunis |
WWWLWW |
| US Monastirienne |
DWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne season so far
US Monastirienne record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | US Monastirienne | ES Tunis | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-15 | ES Tunis | US Monastirienne | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.