ES Tunis
vs
US Monastirienne
Garuda Lions Prediction: ES Tunis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — ES Tunis is the favourite, not a value bet.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne
| Probability | ES Tunis | Draw | US Monastirienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.0% | 35.4% | 24.6% |
| Market | 62.9% | 24.5% | 12.6% |
| Final | 57.2% | 27.2% | 15.6% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +2.7% | +3.0% |
Why ES Tunis
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (our 57.2% × 1.50 − 1).
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne match preview
ES Tunis faces US Monastirienne in a Tunisia Ligue 1 clash, with the home side holding a 57% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 16% chance of occurring. ES Tunis has shown solid recent form, with their last six matches yielding three wins and a draw, while US Monastirienne has been consistent, recording three wins and three draws in their last six outings.
In terms of expected goals, ES Tunis is projected to score 1.02, while US Monastirienne is estimated at 0.74. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows ES Tunis with four wins, four draws, and two victories for US Monastirienne. Both teams to score has a 35% probability, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 26%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.76
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne attack and defence ratings
ES Tunis
US Monastirienne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
Before and after this match
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 57.2% | 1.75 | -5.7% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 57.2% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| US Monastirienne | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.8% |
| No | 65.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Tunis win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.5% |
| 1-0 | 16.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne stats
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne recent form
| ES Tunis |
DWLWWW |
| US Monastirienne |
WDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne season so far
ES Tunis record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
US Monastirienne record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | US Monastirienne | ES Tunis | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-15 | ES Tunis | US Monastirienne | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | ES Tunis | US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-26 | US Monastirienne | ES Tunis | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2024-06-15 | ES Tunis | US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | US Monastirienne | ES Tunis | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-30 | US Monastirienne | ES Tunis | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-07 | ES Tunis | US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-04 | US Monastirienne | ES Tunis | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2023-04-09 | ES Tunis | US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.9%, draw 24.5%, away 12.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 3.58 | 7.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.13 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 3.70 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 3.80 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 3.58 | 6.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 3.79 | 7.19 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.50 | 7.00 |