Stade Tunisien
vs
ES Zarzis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stade Tunisien
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis
| Probability | Stade Tunisien | Draw | ES Zarzis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 31.2% | 28.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.8% | 31.2% | 28.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Stade Tunisien
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis match preview
Stade Tunisien faces ES Zarzis in the Tunisia Ligue 1 on October 29, 2026. According to our model, Stade Tunisien has a 41% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 31% and ES Zarzis at 28%. The expected goals for Stade Tunisien is 1.25, compared to 0.98 for ES Zarzis, suggesting a tight contest. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 12%.
In terms of recent form, Stade Tunisien has recorded two wins, one loss, two draws, while ES Zarzis has seen one win, three losses, and one win in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Stade Tunisien with one win and one draw against ES Zarzis, who have yet to secure a victory in their last two meetings. Both teams have a 46% chance of scoring in this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis attack and defence ratings
Stade Tunisien
ES Zarzis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Tunisien | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Tunisien | 40.8% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| ES Zarzis | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Tunisien win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 12.1% | |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis stats
Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis recent form
| Stade Tunisien |
WWLDWD |
| ES Zarzis |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | ES Zarzis | Stade Tunisien | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Stade Tunisien | ES Zarzis | Tunisia Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.