ES Zarzis
vs
ES Hammam-Sousse
Garuda Lions Prediction: ES Zarzis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
| Probability | ES Zarzis | Draw | ES Hammam-Sousse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.3% | 27.2% | 11.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.3% | 27.2% | 11.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ES Zarzis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse match preview
In the upcoming match between ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for ES Zarzis, with a 61% chance of winning compared to just 12% for ES Hammam-Sousse. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of ES Zarzis, with an 18% probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with ES Zarzis showing a mixed form of L-L-L-W-L-W and ES Hammam-Sousse on a run of L-L-L-D.
The expected goals further highlight the disparity, with ES Zarzis at 1.55 and ES Hammam-Sousse at just 0.53. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% probability that both teams will score. Overall, the confidence grade for this match stands at C, indicating moderate certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.08
ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse attack and defence ratings
ES Zarzis
ES Hammam-Sousse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Zarzis | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Zarzis | 61.3% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.6% |
| No | 66.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Zarzis win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.3% |
| 2-0 | 15.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.5% |
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse stats
ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse recent form
| ES Zarzis |
LLLWLW |
| ES Hammam-Sousse |
LLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.