CAF Confederation Cup
·
Full time
·2nd Preliminary Round
ES Zarzis
vs
Réal Bamako
1 – 3 Full time
| 24′ | F. Tangara | ||
| 45′ | kamate andre | ||
| 45′ | kamate andre | ||
| 90′ | ES Zarzis |
ES Zarzis
47%
Draw
33%
Réal Bamako
20%
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako
| Probability | ES Zarzis | Draw | Réal Bamako |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.1% | 32.9% | 20.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.1% | 32.9% | 20.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ES Zarzis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
29%
No goals
16%
ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako expected goals
ES Zarzis
1.20
Réal Bamako
0.69
Total expected goals: 1.89
ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako attack and defence ratings
ES Zarzis
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Réal Bamako
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako: result vs prediction
ES Zarzis 1 – 3 Réal Bamako
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Zarzis | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Zarzis | 47.1% |
| Draw | 32.9% | |
| Réal Bamako | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.1% |
| No | 63.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Zarzis win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.9% |
| 0-0 | 16.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako stats
ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako recent form
| ES Zarzis |
WLLLWL |
| Réal Bamako |
DW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.