ES Zarzis
vs
Réal Bamako
Garuda Lions Prediction: ES Zarzis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako
| Probability | ES Zarzis | Draw | Réal Bamako |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 33.8% | 22.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.2% | 33.8% | 22.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ES Zarzis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako match preview
ES Zarzis enters this CAF Confederation Cup match with a probability of 43% to win, while Réal Bamako has a 23% chance of securing victory, and a draw stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of ES Zarzis, with a 16% likelihood. Expected goals for ES Zarzis are 1.13, compared to 0.75 for Réal Bamako, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
Recent form shows ES Zarzis with a mixed record of L-L-L-W-L-W, while Réal Bamako has managed a draw and a win in their last two matches. The model suggests a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% probability that both teams will score, reflecting a cautious outlook on offensive output in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.87
ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako attack and defence ratings
ES Zarzis
Réal Bamako
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Zarzis | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Zarzis | 43.2% |
| Draw | 33.8% | |
| Réal Bamako | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.9% |
| No | 63.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Zarzis win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.6% |
| 1-0 | 16.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako stats
ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako recent form
| ES Zarzis |
LLLWLW |
| Réal Bamako |
DW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.