Red Arrows
vs
Kaizer Chiefs
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Arrows
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs
| Probability | Red Arrows | Draw | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.7% | 29.5% | 13.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.7% | 29.5% | 13.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Red Arrows
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs match preview
Red Arrows are favored in their upcoming CAF Confederation Cup match against Kaizer Chiefs, with a 57% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at an 18% likelihood. Red Arrows have shown strong recent form, with four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Kaizer Chiefs have recorded two wins and four draws in the same period.
The expected goals for Red Arrows stand at 1.42, significantly higher than Kaizer Chiefs' 0.57. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 32%, and both teams to score is at 34%. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Red Arrows and Kaizer Chiefs expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Red Arrows and Kaizer Chiefs attack and defence ratings
Red Arrows
Kaizer Chiefs
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 56.7% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Kaizer Chiefs | 13.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.0% |
| No | 66.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.3% |
| 0-0 | 14.8% | |
| 2-0 | 13.8% |
Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs stats
Red Arrows and Kaizer Chiefs recent form
| Red Arrows |
WWWWDW |
| Kaizer Chiefs |
DDWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.