CAF Confederation Cup
·
Full time
·2nd Preliminary Round
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
vs
Al Ahli Tripoli
0 – 4 Full time
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
29%
Draw
30%
Al Ahli Tripoli
41%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli
| Probability | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | Draw | Al Ahli Tripoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 30.1% | 41.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.8% | 30.1% | 41.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Ahli Tripoli
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
11%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli expected goals
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.07
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.32
Total expected goals: 2.38
Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli attack and defence ratings
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Al Ahli Tripoli
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli: result vs prediction
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0 – 4 Al Ahli Tripoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Tripoli | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 28.8% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Al Ahli Tripoli | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Tripoli win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli stats
Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli recent form
| Welwalo Adigrat Uni |
WL |
| Al Ahli Tripoli |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.