Welwalo Adigrat Uni
vs
Al Ahli Tripoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ahli Tripoli
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli
| Probability | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | Draw | Al Ahli Tripoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 30.1% | 41.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.8% | 30.1% | 41.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Ahli Tripoli
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli match preview
Welwalo Adigrat Uni faces Al Ahli Tripoli in the CAF Confederation Cup, with the model assigning a 29% probability of a victory for the home side, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 41% likelihood of an away win for Al Ahli Tripoli. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at an 11% rate. Expected goals are estimated at 1.07 for Welwalo Adigrat Uni and 1.32 for Al Ahli Tripoli.
In terms of recent form, Welwalo Adigrat Uni has recorded a win followed by a loss, while Al Ahli Tripoli's latest results include two wins, one loss, and two draws. The model indicates a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams will score, reflecting a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli attack and defence ratings
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Al Ahli Tripoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Tripoli | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 28.8% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Al Ahli Tripoli | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Tripoli win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli stats
Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli recent form
| Welwalo Adigrat Uni |
WL |
| Al Ahli Tripoli |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.