Al Ahli Tripoli
vs
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
4 – 1 Full time
Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
| Probability | Al Ahli Tripoli | Draw | Welwalo Adigrat Uni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 85.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Ahli Tripoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.03 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ahli Tripoli and Welwalo Adigrat Uni expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Al Ahli Tripoli and Welwalo Adigrat Uni attack and defence ratings
Al Ahli Tripoli
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni: result vs prediction
Al Ahli Tripoli 4 – 1 Welwalo Adigrat Uni
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
- Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Al Ahli Tripoli — match page
- Masr v Azam — match page
- Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs — team news & stats
- Kitara vs Al Ahly — team news & stats
- ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako — team news & stats
- AFAD vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats
- Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo
- Korhogo v FAR Rabat — match page
Before and after this match
Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Tripoli | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 96.4% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Tripoli win | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Tripoli | 85.7% |
| Draw | 10.7% | |
| Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 3.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.8% |
| No | 59.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 96.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 14.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Tripoli win | 68.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 14.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 12.9% |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | |
| 4-0 | 9.8% |
Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni stats
Al Ahli Tripoli and Welwalo Adigrat Uni recent form
| Al Ahli Tripoli |
WWWLDW |
| Welwalo Adigrat Uni |
LWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | Al Ahli Tripoli | CAF Confederation Cup | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.