Azam
vs
Al Ahli Tripoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Azam
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Azam vs Al Ahli Tripoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Azam vs Al Ahli Tripoli
| Probability | Azam | Draw | Al Ahli Tripoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.1% | 30.2% | 31.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.1% | 30.2% | 31.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Azam vs Al Ahli Tripoli match preview
Azam faces Al Ahli Tripoli in the CAF Confederation Cup with a projected probability of 38% for a home win, while the chances of a draw stand at 30% and an away victory at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.27 for Azam and 1.14 for Al Ahli Tripoli.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Azam recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Al Ahli Tripoli has four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same timeframe. There is a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score 50% of the time, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Azam and Al Ahli Tripoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Azam and Al Ahli Tripoli attack and defence ratings
Azam
Al Ahli Tripoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Caf Confederation Cup - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Azam vs Al Ahli Tripoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azam | 38.1% | 2.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azam | 38.1% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Al Ahli Tripoli | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Azam win | 17.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Azam vs Al Ahli Tripoli stats
Azam and Al Ahli Tripoli recent form
| Azam |
WWWDWL |
| Al Ahli Tripoli |
WWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.