USM Alger
vs
Réal Bamako
Garuda Lions Prediction: USM Alger
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
USM Alger vs Réal Bamako overview
Garuda Lions analysis: USM Alger vs Réal Bamako
| Probability | USM Alger | Draw | Réal Bamako |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 27.5% | 23.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.3% | 27.5% | 23.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why USM Alger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
USM Alger vs Réal Bamako match preview
USM Alger will face Réal Bamako in the CAF Confederation Cup on November 28, 2026. According to our model, USM Alger has a 49% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 28% and Réal Bamako at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of USM Alger, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals are 1.59 for USM Alger and 1.02 for Réal Bamako.
In terms of recent form, USM Alger has recorded a sequence of W-D-W-L-W-W, indicating a strong performance overall. Réal Bamako has shown resilience with a recent form of D-W-D-W. The model suggests a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
USM Alger and Réal Bamako expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
USM Alger and Réal Bamako attack and defence ratings
USM Alger
Réal Bamako
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Caf Confederation Cup - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
USM Alger vs Réal Bamako markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USM Alger | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USM Alger | 49.3% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Réal Bamako | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | USM Alger win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
USM Alger vs Réal Bamako stats
USM Alger and Réal Bamako recent form
| USM Alger |
WDWLWW |
| Réal Bamako |
DWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.