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CAF Champions League · Full time ·2nd Preliminary Round

Asswehly vs ES Tunis

1 – 0 Full time

64′A. Ayed

Misurata Stadium, Misrata

Asswehly 25%
Draw 25%
ES Tunis 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Asswehly vs ES Tunis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Asswehly vs ES Tunis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAsswehlyDrawES Tunis
Model58.7%26.7%14.6%
Market14.0%23.8%62.2%
Final25.2%24.5%50.3%
Edge+11.2%+0.7%-11.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why ES Tunis

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Asswehly ↓ / ES Tunis → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 15% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Asswehly and ES Tunis expected goals

Asswehly 1.63
ES Tunis 0.69

Total expected goals: 2.33

Asswehly and ES Tunis attack and defence ratings

Asswehly

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.71 -29%

ES Tunis

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Asswehly vs ES Tunis: result vs prediction

Asswehly 1 – 0 ES Tunis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

CAF Champions League

Before and after this match

Asswehly vs ES Tunis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 ES Tunis 50.3% 1.99 -11.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.0% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.5% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 85.5% 1.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Asswehly25.2%
Draw24.5%
ES Tunis50.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%
Both teams to scoreYes41.4%
No58.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.7%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)74.8%
Handicap -1ES Tunis win4.2%
Push (exactly one goal)10.3%
Loss85.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.8%
2-013.0%
1-112.2%

Asswehly vs ES Tunis stats

Asswehly and ES Tunis recent form

newest first
Asswehly WW
ES Tunis WWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Asswehly vs ES Tunis head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Asswehly vs ES Tunis odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 14.0%, draw 23.8%, away 62.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.83 3.66 1.45
Bet365 6.00 3.90 1.44

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.