Asswehly
vs
ES Tunis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Asswehly
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Asswehly vs ES Tunis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Asswehly vs ES Tunis
| Probability | Asswehly | Draw | ES Tunis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 26.2% | 11.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.9% | 26.2% | 11.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Asswehly
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.58.
Asswehly vs ES Tunis match preview
Asswehly will face ES Tunis in the CAF Champions League on October 18, 2026. The model suggests a strong likelihood of a home victory for Asswehly, with a 62% probability of winning compared to ES Tunis's 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 17%. Asswehly's expected goals stand at 1.63, while ES Tunis is projected to score only 0.58.
In terms of recent form, Asswehly has won their last two matches, while ES Tunis has a mixed record with three wins and two losses in their last six games. The probabilities indicate a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, based solely on model data.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Asswehly and ES Tunis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Asswehly and ES Tunis attack and defence ratings
Asswehly
ES Tunis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Asswehly vs ES Tunis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asswehly | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.1% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asswehly | 61.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| ES Tunis | 11.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.4% |
| No | 63.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Asswehly win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.9% |
| 2-0 | 14.6% | |
| 0-0 | 12.1% |