LD Alajuelense
vs
Perez Zeledon
Garuda Lions Prediction: LD Alajuelense
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — LD Alajuelense is the favourite, not a value bet.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon
| Probability | LD Alajuelense | Draw | Perez Zeledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% |
| Market | 72.6% | 17.3% | 10.1% |
| Final | 73.3% | 17.1% | 9.7% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
Why LD Alajuelense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 73.3% × 1.30 − 1).
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon match preview
LD Alajuelense enters the match against Perez Zeledon with a strong probability of winning at 72%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. The expected goals for Alajuelense stand at 2.58, while Perez Zeledon is projected to score only 0.77. Recent form shows Alajuelense with a mixed record of W-D-D-W-L-L, contrasting with Perez Zeledon's struggles, having lost four of their last five matches.
In head-to-head encounters, Alajuelense has a slight edge with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 win for Perez Zeledon in their last five meetings. The model also indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood that both teams will score. Overall, the confidence grade for this match is marked as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon attack and defence ratings
LD Alajuelense
Perez Zeledon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 73.3% | 1.37 | +0.6% | 1.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 73.3% |
| Draw | 17.1% | |
| Perez Zeledon | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win | 54.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 24.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 3-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon stats
LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon recent form
| LD Alajuelense |
WDDWLL |
| Perez Zeledon |
LLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
LD Alajuelense and Perez Zeledon season so far
LD Alajuelense record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Perez Zeledon record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Perez Zeledon | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-14 | LD Alajuelense | Perez Zeledon | Costa Rica Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Perez Zeledon | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | LD Alajuelense | Perez Zeledon | Costa Rica Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Perez Zeledon | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-01 | Perez Zeledon | LD Alajuelense | Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-27 | LD Alajuelense | Perez Zeledon | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Perez Zeledon | LD Alajuelense | Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-11 | LD Alajuelense | Perez Zeledon | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Perez Zeledon | LD Alajuelense | Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
LD Alajuelense vs Perez Zeledon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.5%, draw 17.4%, away 10.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 5.30 | 9.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.25 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.30 | 5.20 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.28 | 5.40 | 8.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 5.30 | 9.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.64 | 8.91 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 4.66 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .