San Carlos
vs
Deportivo Saprissa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Saprissa
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Saprissa is the favourite, not a value bet.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa
| Probability | San Carlos | Draw | Deportivo Saprissa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.2% | 28.6% | 40.2% |
| Market | 24.4% | 27.6% | 48.0% |
| Final | 26.1% | 27.8% | 46.1% |
| Edge | +1.7% | +0.3% | -1.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 46.1% × 2.00 − 1).
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa match preview
San Carlos faces Deportivo Saprissa in an upcoming match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. According to our model, Deportivo Saprissa holds a 40% chance of winning, while San Carlos has a 30% probability, and a draw stands at 31%. The expected goals indicate San Carlos at 1.06 and Deportivo Saprissa at 1.27, hinting at a potentially close match. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 0-1, occurring at an 11% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, San Carlos has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins in their last five matches, while Deportivo Saprissa has alternated between wins and losses, securing three victories in the same period. Historically, Deportivo Saprissa has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning all five of the last matches against San Carlos.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa attack and defence ratings
San Carlos
Deportivo Saprissa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Saprissa | 46.1% | 2.17 | -1.9% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Carlos | 26.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Saprissa win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 59.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 8.7% |
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa stats
San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa recent form
| San Carlos |
DLWWWW |
| Deportivo Saprissa |
LWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Carlos and Deportivo Saprissa season so far
San Carlos record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Saprissa record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Deportivo Saprissa | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-23 | San Carlos | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-08 | Deportivo Saprissa | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-16 | San Carlos | Deportivo Saprissa | Costa Rica Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Deportivo Saprissa | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Deportivo Saprissa | San Carlos | Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-12 | San Carlos | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-11 | Deportivo Saprissa | San Carlos | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-07 | San Carlos | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-24 | San Carlos | Deportivo Saprissa | Primera División | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.6%, draw 27.6%, away 47.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.80 | 3.22 | 1.88 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.30 | 1.98 |
| Marathonbet | 3.70 | 3.22 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | 4.03 | 3.43 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.15 | 2.98 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .