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Czech Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

1 – 2 Full time

16′Samuel SimekVáclav Drchal
20′Václav Drchal
34′Tomas Jelinek
44′Jiri Boula
45′Filip Kubala
45′Jiri MicekMaksym·Diachuk
45′Daniel HolzerArtur Musak
45′Filip KubalaDantaye·Gilbert
45′Victor SamuelTobias Boledovic
54′Abdoull Tanko
57′Mouhamed Tidjane Traore
59′Ryan MahutaDaniel Smekal
71′Daniel Smekal
72′Yevgeniy SkybaMichal Frydrych
72′Vaclav JureckaRhodri Smith
81′Vit Skrkon
86′Daniel SmekalKahuan Vinicius
86′Abdoull TankoJan Tredl
88′Denis Halinský

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, OstravaReferee: Vojtech Opocensky, Czechia

Baník Ostrava 46%
Draw 27%
Pardubice 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 7
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 4
10 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 4
425 Accurate passes 244

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBaník OstravaDrawPardubice
Model41.8%29.5%28.7%
Market47.6%25.8%26.5%
Final46.2%26.7%27.1%
Edge-5.8%+3.7%+2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Baník Ostrava

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Baník Ostrava ↓ / Pardubice → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 10% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected goals

Baník Ostrava 1.37
Pardubice 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.46

Baník Ostrava and Pardubice attack and defence ratings

Baník Ostrava

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Pardubice

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice: result vs prediction

Baník Ostrava 1 – 2 Pardubice

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Czech Liga

Before and after this match

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Baník Ostrava 46.2% 2.16 -5.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.4% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.8% 1.97 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.2% 1.72 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Baník Ostrava46.2%
Draw26.7%
Pardubice27.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%
Both teams to scoreYes50.8%
No49.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.9%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)53.8%
Handicap -1Baník Ostrava win20.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss58.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
1-010.4%
0-09.8%

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice stats

Baník Ostrava and Pardubice recent form

newest first
Baník Ostrava LLWWLL
Pardubice DLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Baník Ostrava and Pardubice going into this match

league record before kick-off

Baník Ostrava record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Pardubice record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Baník Ostrava wins 2Draws 2Pardubice wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-13Baník OstravaPardubiceCzech Liga1-4
2025-11-05PardubiceBaník OstravaCup3-4
2025-10-01PardubiceBaník OstravaCzech Liga0-1
2025-03-29Baník OstravaPardubiceCzech Liga5-2
2025-03-05PardubiceBaník OstravaCup0-2
2024-10-26PardubiceBaník OstravaCzech Liga2-3
2024-03-17PardubiceBaník OstravaCzech Liga0-1
2023-10-07Baník OstravaPardubiceCzech Liga1-1
2023-05-28Baník OstravaPardubiceCzech Liga2-4
2023-03-04PardubiceBaník OstravaCzech Liga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 26.6%, away 26.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.04 3.40 3.25
1xBet 1.93 3.60 3.60
888Sport 1.91 3.40 3.70
Bet365 1.91 3.40 3.50
BetVictor 1.95 3.60 3.60
Betano 1.98 3.45 3.50
Betfair 1.95 3.60 3.50
Dafabet 1.96 3.65 3.80
Marathonbet 1.91 3.60 3.60
Pinnacle 1.97 3.60 3.78
SBO 1.95 3.09 3.20
Unibet 2.02 3.45 3.50
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.08
X 3.60 ▲ +0.08
2 3.50 ▲ +0.16

13 snapshots recorded, from .