Marienlyst
vs
VSK Århus
1 – 3 Full time
Marienlyst vs VSK Århus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marienlyst vs VSK Århus
| Probability | Marienlyst | Draw | VSK Århus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.5% | 10.1% | 83.4% |
| Market | 15.0% | 20.5% | 64.5% |
| Final | 12.9% | 17.9% | 69.2% |
| Edge | -8.5% | -10.4% | +18.9% |
Why VSK Århus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.76 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices VSK Århus below the model: +18.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marienlyst and VSK Århus expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.89
Marienlyst and VSK Århus attack and defence ratings
Marienlyst
VSK Århus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Marienlyst vs VSK Århus: result vs prediction
Marienlyst 1 – 3 VSK Århus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marienlyst vs VSK Århus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VSK Århus | 69.2% | 1.45 | +18.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.6% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | VSK Århus win | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marienlyst | 12.9% |
| Draw | 17.9% | |
| VSK Århus | 69.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 13.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.6% |
| No | 33.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | VSK Århus win | 68.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.7% | |
| Loss | 16.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.5% |
| 1-4 | 7.1% | |
| 0-3 | 6.6% |
Marienlyst vs VSK Århus stats
Marienlyst and VSK Århus recent form
| Marienlyst |
WL |
| VSK Århus |
WLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Marienlyst vs VSK Århus head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-18 | VSK Århus | Marienlyst | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marienlyst vs VSK Århus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.0%, draw 20.5%, away 64.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.60 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| 1xBet | 6.32 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 5.50 | 4.25 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| Marathonbet | 6.10 | 4.40 | 1.39 |
| Pinnacle | 5.45 | 4.35 | 1.40 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 3.96 | 1.43 |
| Superbet | 5.60 | 4.40 | 1.45 |
| Unibet | 7.00 | 5.60 | 1.26 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .