Såby vs Roskilde overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Såby vs Roskilde
| Probability | Såby | Draw | Roskilde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.1% | 11.1% | 82.8% |
| Market | 9.3% | 16.0% | 74.7% |
| Final | 8.5% | 14.8% | 76.8% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -4.8% | +8.0% |
Why Roskilde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.39 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roskilde below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
93%
3+ goals
80%
No goals
2%
Såby and Roskilde expected goals
Såby
0.93
Roskilde
3.39
Total expected goals: 4.31
Såby and Roskilde attack and defence ratings
Såby
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Roskilde
Attack
1.38 +38%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Såby vs Roskilde: result vs prediction
Såby 0 – 5 Roskilde
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Såby vs Roskilde markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roskilde | 76.8% | 1.30 | +8.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Roskilde win | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Såby | 8.5% |
| Draw | 14.8% | |
| Roskilde | 76.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% |
| No | 41.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 23.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roskilde win | 66.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 17.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 8.7% |
| 1-3 | 8.0% | |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
Såby vs Roskilde stats
Såby vs Roskilde head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Såby vs Roskilde odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.3%, draw 16.0%, away 74.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.00 | 5.80 | 1.24 |
| Dafabet | 10.00 | 5.80 | 1.23 |
| Unibet | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
10.00 ▲ +0.55
X
5.80 ▲ +0.60
2
1.24 ▼ -0.02
2 snapshots recorded, from .