Garuda Lions
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DBU Pokalen · Full time ·Round of 64

Skive vs Esbjerg

1 – 5 Full time

Skive 19%
Draw 23%
Esbjerg 59%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Skive vs Esbjerg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Skive vs Esbjerg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySkiveDrawEsbjerg
Model13.0%18.5%68.5%
Market20.5%24.2%55.3%
Final18.6%22.8%58.6%
Edge-7.5%-5.7%+13.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Esbjerg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.03.
  • The market prices Esbjerg below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Skive ↓ / Esbjerg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 8% 9% 1 8% 9% 8% 9% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Skive and Esbjerg expected goals

Skive 1.03
Esbjerg 2.51

Total expected goals: 3.54

Skive and Esbjerg attack and defence ratings

Skive

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Esbjerg

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Skive vs Esbjerg: result vs prediction

Skive 1 – 5 Esbjerg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

DBU Pokalen

Before and after this match

Skive vs Esbjerg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Esbjerg 58.6% 1.71 +13.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.7% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.1% 1.66 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Esbjerg win 47.8% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Skive18.6%
Draw22.8%
Esbjerg58.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%
Both teams to scoreYes60.1%
No39.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.4%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)81.4%
Handicap -1Esbjerg win47.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss31.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.4%
0-29.1%
1-18.3%

Skive vs Esbjerg stats

Skive and Esbjerg recent form

newest first
Skive WLW
Esbjerg LLLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Skive vs Esbjerg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Skive wins 2Draws 6Esbjerg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-04-06EsbjergSkive2. Division2-0
2023-08-04SkiveEsbjerg2. Division1-4
2023-02-18SkiveEsbjergFriendlies Clubs1-1
2022-11-18SkiveEsbjerg2. Division2-1
2022-08-14EsbjergSkive2. Division0-0
2022-07-29EsbjergSkiveFriendlies Clubs1-2
2020-11-22EsbjergSkive1. Division2-1
2020-09-12SkiveEsbjerg1. Division0-2
2018-05-16SkiveEsbjerg1. Division0-1
2018-03-04EsbjergSkive1. Division2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Skive vs Esbjerg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.5%, draw 24.2%, away 55.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.10 3.65 1.65
1xBet 4.76 3.74 1.61
Bet365 4.50 3.80 1.67
BetVictor 4.60 3.90 1.62
Betano 4.40 3.60 1.65
Betfair 4.33 3.80 1.65
Dafabet 4.60 3.90 1.65
Marathonbet 4.70 3.74 1.59
Pinnacle 4.31 3.77 1.65
SBO 4.31 3.57 1.58
Superbet 4.45 3.85 1.64
Unibet 5.00 4.35 1.46
William Hill 4.33 3.40 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.45 ▲ +0.20
X 3.77 ▲ +0.09
2 1.65 ▼ -0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .